Subject: The Most Influential Innovations of the Millennium Date: Published: 01/11/99 (269 lines of text) Source: Wall Street Journal. Copyright Dow Jones & Co. Inc. The Millennium --- The Most Influential Innovations of the Millennium Peter Drucker, management guru: The one single event in the last millennium that had the most lasting impact is the invention of printing with movable type by Gutenberg between 1445 and 1455. It was the third Information Revolution -- the first two were the invention of writing in Mesopotamia 5,000 or 6,000 years ago; the second the invention of the book in China around 1300 B. C. and Athens around 500 B. C. The fourth information revolution is now sweeping the world. But Gutenberg's information revolution had a far greater impact than the present one -- especially on the fundamental mindset of humanity. It is still a far more potent force than the present electronic revolution -- actually, printed books and printed magazines have probably grown even faster in the last 40 years than computer and computer data -- and are in the process of taking over the new electronic technology as their distribution channel. --- Lee Kuan Yew, former prime minister, now senior minister, of Singapore: The humble air conditioner has changed the lives of people in the tropical regions. Before air-con, mental concentration and with it the quality of work deteriorated as the day got hotter and more humid. After lunch, business in many tropical countries stopped until the cooler hours of the late afternoon. Historically, advanced civilizations have flourished in the cooler climates. Now lifestyles have become comparable to those in temperate zones and civilization in the tropical zones need no longer lag behind. The ideal invention would be a light polyester air-conditioned undergarment, enclosed around the neck, wrists and ankles and battery operated. Everyone can then work at his optimum temperature and civilization can spread across all climates. --- Gary S. Becker, Nobel-prize winning economist at the University of Chicago: Much deeper understanding of the benefits from competition is one of the most significant and influential developments of the past several centuries. In the "Wealth of Nations" in 1776, Adam Smith analyzed how pressure from competition forces each businessman to serve consumers while seeking only his own profits. But the advantages of competition are not confined to economic activities. Competition in all walks of life is the foundation of the most precious freedoms of the modern world. In politics, it is the essence of the case for democracy, which uses competition among political leaders to better serve the interests of voters. In the spiritual world, freedom to worship allows different religions to compete for followers. Open inquiry, which is competition in the world of ideas, is considered the best way to get at the truth. --- Philip Dimitrov, former prime minister of Bulgaria, now ambassador to the U.S.: One of the few ethnically and religiously tolerant cultures in Europe emerged in Bulgaria in the past millennium. Bulgarians made it a matter of moral value to accept people of different ethnic origin. Bulgaria welcomed warmly the persecuted Armenians early this century and became a second home for them. Bulgaria was the only country in Europe which saved all its 50,000 Jews from deportation during World War II through the combined efforts of king, Parliament, church, intellectuals and ordinary people. In the late '80s the Communist regime's attempt to clash Bulgarians and ethnic Turks resulted in the emergence of a Bulgarian opposition to the anti-Turkish persecutions. Today, Bulgaria is a model of stability in the tumultuous Balkans. --- Hans Tietmeyer, president of the Bundesbank: If I look for an idea that has provided a stimulus world-wide and should be carried over into the next millennium, there is one that comes to mind: the notions of individual liberty and not discriminating against others, as they were elaborated in the enlightened 18th century. During the short timespan between 1776 and 1779 those notions were set forth in no fewer than three documents: The Virginia Bill of Rights of 1776 grants every individual the right to the enjoyment of life and liberty and to acquire and possess property. In the same year, Adam Smith published his "Wealth of Nations"; he propounded the idea that the individual is most likely to contribute to economic prosperity under conditions of free competition. Finally, in 1779, in his play "Nathan der Weise," Gotthold Ephraim Lessing highlighted religious freedom and toleration as prerequisites of the peaceful coexistence of the world religions. All three documents rightly stress the importance of liberty for human dignity peace and prosperity. Sadako Ogata, U. N. High Commissioner for Refugees: The 20th century witnessed some of humanity's darkest moments. Yet is also saw an unprecedented rise of individual liberty and commitment to help the downtrodden. As the wounds of the Second World War were just starting to heal and millions were still uprooted, world leaders took the momentous decision to establish the Office of the United Nations Commissioner for Refugees. They also adopted a convention that wrote the rights of refugees into international law. By doing so, they acknowledged that protecting victims of persecution is one of humanity's prime moral and legal obligations. --- Pascal Salin, professor of economics at Universite Paris-Dauphine, and past president of the Mont Pelerin Society: The finishing millennium may have brought about a fundamental idea, namely that a spontaneous social order, founded on individual liberty can work and has worked better than any other system. Even if the philosophical roots of individual freedom are older, it is during this millennium that some societies shifted from a situation in which individuals had a predetermined social status to a situation in which they could decide how to lead their own lives. --- Hugh Thomas, British historian: Tempted as I am to suggest that the real innovation of the millennium has been the invention of spirits (a device of a Catalan monastery, I believe), I must accept that the decisive creation has been the printing press. None of the scientific, religious, political and probably geographical changes of 1450-2000 would have happened without printing. Poetry would have always existed. But the novel, the great literary achievement of the last 500 years, is also the child of printing. --- Robert Thurman, professor of Indo-Tibetan Studies at Columbia University: The history of the last millennium is told as a series of wars. Fortunately, there is one civilization that enjoyed almost 300 years of relative peace -- Tibet. In the 1640s, after reflecting on Tibet's role as a conquest empire and the country's internal conflicts and strife, the Great Fifth Dalai Lama, invented a unique institution to rule his country -- a collaboration of monastics and aristocrats. Although it began with a use of force to overwhelm regional warlords, this remarkable national institution gradually accomplished demilitarization and elevated monasticism, with its emphasis on education and spiritual development. In the new millennium, the sophisticated technology of mass destruction has made traditional warfare unthinkable and unwinnable. The world must be inspired to create new kinds of nations, societies and economies not grounded in militarism and, therefore, can learn from the wise example of the historic leaders of Tibet. --- Kenichi Ohmae, management consultant and author in Tokyo: Historians will call 1985 Anno Gates. It was the year Windows Version 1 was introduced in Seattle, CNN began broadcasting in Atlanta and Gateway 2000 kicked off from a cattle ranch in South Sioux Falls, S. D. In 1 B. G. (Before Gates) Cisco Systems had been born in Palo Alto, and Dell Computers in Austin. Sun Microsystems opened for business in Santa Clara in 3 B. G., George Soros started the Quantum Fund in 4 B. G., and Oracle began operations in Sunnyvale in 8 B. G. Most of these companies did not grow up in big cities and have revolutionary chromosomes, almost like those of Godzilla, that enabled them to grow 10 times faster than companies up to then. The new benchmark for corporate growth is to reach a billion dollar market capitalization in a few years and achieve $10 billion sales within 10 years of startup. The 21st century marketplace will be a battleground between the Godzillas and humans. Without proper cages, such delicate human creations as national economies, protectionist trade unions, value-chains and organizational pyramids will be crushed by the giant footsteps of the Godzillas. --- Walter Wriston, former chairman of Citicorp/Citibank: The microchip linked to a broad band network is the driver for the politics and economy of today. There are more than six billion chips out there in everything from the lock on your hotel room to genetic diagnostic machines. The chip is changing the way we work and the way the world works. Live TV pictures of suffering humanity changes the foreign policy of great powers; live radiologists at remote locations reading high-resolution CAT scans advise rural physicians; satellite pictures alert military commanders; interactive PCs on the web are becoming a universal teaching device; e-commerce is booming. Every aspect of personal, political and economic life is being changed by the chip and the networks it powers. The technology disperses power of all kinds; it leaves political leaders no place to hide. Every field of human endeavor is changing at warp speed and the end is nowhere in sight. --- Antonio Martino, Italian economist, member of Parliament and former minister of foreign affairs: One of the greatest achievements of mankind, one without which the world as we know it would have been impossible, is the discovery of the importance of rational economic behavior and the pursuit of profit. I would date this to the work of Benedetto Cotrugli, who published in 1458 the first known work on double-entry bookkeeping, predating the better-known work of Luca Pacioli (1494) who is generally considered the father of accounting. The revolutionary nature of Cotrugli's work consists not so much in his description of how the "perfect merchant" should keep track of his transactions as in the implicit commendation of rational behavior aimed at achieving a profit. Economic historians have described his work as advocating the "religion of commerce and profit." This was revolutionary at a time when the Catholic Church was denouncing as sinful all activities aimed at a profit, which was looked at as sinful in itself. Without double-entry bookkeeping, the rational conduct of business, and the pursuit of profit, modern civilization would not exist. --- Shashi Tharoor, Indian novelist and aide to the U. N. secretary-general: As an Indian and a United Nations official, I am profoundly convinced that the one idea that has been indispensable to human progress is the idea of pluralism. The Indian adventure is that of human beings of different ethnicities and religions, languages and beliefs, working together under the same roof, sharing the same dreams. That is also what the United Nations, at its best, seeks to achieve. Growing up in India, I valued the idea that a nation may endure differences of caste, creed, conviction, color, culture, cuisine, costume and custom, and still rally around a democratic consensus. That pluralist consensus is on the simple principle that in a democracy you don't really need to agree -- except on the ground rules of how you will disagree. It is the same for the world at large: The great achievement of our millennium has been that we have attained a global consensus on how to manage without consensus. --- Enrique Krauze, Mexican historian: Latin America, as everyone knows, gets a bad press. What a place to live! The paradise of drugs, the homeland of dictators, an economic chaos, belts of misery around all cities, natural wealth wasted and destroyed, daily violence, frightful social inequalities, constant corruption -- it can easily sound like hell on Earth. And yet, and yet...these countries show a high level of culture and human warmth. Consider the ethnic, religious and national aspects of the region. Latin America is a continent of racial and cultural mixture. Racial discrimination and hatred based on race have generally not reached the extremes experienced in the U.S. And Latin America has not been the site of great religious wars. Even though most of its population is Catholic, religious minorities have not be subjected to major persecutions. On the contrary: Ever since the 19th century, these countries have offered shelter to exiles. Many Latin American countries became nations in the early 19th century, before Italy, before Germany. Perhaps in part because of that comparative antiquity, they have not lived in a constant state of war with each other or suffered through frequent irredentist rebellions. --- Suleyman Demirel, president of Turkey: The millennium that is about to draw to an end has had its dark as well as bright chapters. On the one hand, it has been the most brutal era throughout human history. However, humanity has come close to answering the following questions: What are the qualities that define human dignity and what rights, obligations and responsibilities do these create in our relationships with each other? Only after long and painful struggles has humankind concluded a global contract on fundamental rights and economic liberties. Constitutional democracy, free market economy, rule of law and mechanisms that safeguard human rights are the pillars of this contract. These should be the transcending achievements that we should keep alive eternally. They hold the key for a better and peaceful world. --- Elizabeth Dole, president of the American Red Cross: The ability to transfuse blood is one of the great medical advances of this century -- and of the millennium. The American Red Cross started collecting blood during World War II to save soldiers' lives, then brought this medical miracle to all Americans when it created the first nationwide, volunteer blood collection and distribution system. While transfusion medicine faced its greatest challenge in the threat of blood-borne diseases such as HIV/AIDS, the development of antibody testing and other medical advances now assure us that blood is safe to give and safe to receive.Yet ultimately, our technology plays a secondary role to the greatest miracle of transfusion: the extraordinary willingness of millions of volunteer blood donors to save a life they will never know. --- Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, Nobel prize-winning Russian writer: A significant and perhaps irreversible process that, I believe, threatens to advance substantially in the 21st century is humanity's hazardous crossing from a natural existence into a "technosphere." Technical progress, which for centuries grew by devouring nature, now proceeds at the expense of culture and man himself. Having always in the past been a participant, or even a maker, of history, man is today furiously swept along by technical progress, whose stormy successes are contributing to a numbing of the person. Our capacity for concentration and deep inner contemplation, which we are already forfeiting, is being overwhelmed by a tidal wave of inordinate superficial information. This avalanche leaves less and less room for spirituality, so that many have lost it altogether; less and less room for love not confined to sexual attraction alone. More and more, man is being transformed from a cultural-historical type to a "technogenic" type. This deep-seated psychological shift threatens humanity with the loss of its very self. 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