Subject: New York Primary Tests Democratic Coalition, Poses Risks Date: Published: 4/18/88 156 lines Source: WALL STREET JOURNAL. Copyright Dow Jones & Co. Inc. Campaign '88: New York Primary Tests Democratic Coalition, Poses Risks That May Affect Race in November --- By David Rogers Staff Reporter of The Wall Street Journal NEW YORK -- New York tests the Democratic coalition, from inside and out. Minority voters will dominate tomorrow's primary more than in any other contest so far this year, and the challenge for each candidate is to build alliances without sacrificing the independence he needs before the nation at large. From gay rights to aid for African states, the party is pushed to the left in a high-profile contest where short-term gain must be measured against potential losses in November. For Michael Dukakis, the current front-runner, the stakes are highest. The Massachusetts governor clings to a narrow lead in the polls, and if he should win tomorrow, he will have done so without the "special interest" label that has hurt Democrats before. He has supported increased spending for child care but told a women's political caucus he can't promise to fully fund a $2.5 billion authorization for such services now pending in Congress. He has backed legislation protecting the rights of homosexuals but balked at endorsing an immediate executive order toward the same end. He has said, effectively, that Israel should have a veto over the creation of a Palestinian state but has refused himself to rule out a new state as a means of resolving the Mideast crisis. "Dukakis has a very competitive and strong general election profile," says Kirk O'Donnell, a Democratic strategist. "So far in the New York primary that hasn't changed." The danger to this approach is a loss tomorrow, and if the governor fails against the Rev. Jesse Jackson, it may be because he also failed to reach the heart of Democratic constituencies. He must counter the emotion-charged rhetoric of Mr. Jackson and risks losing white ethnic votes to Sen. Albert Gore, who has made an issue of loyalty to Israel. Recent polls have shown both men gaining on Mr. Dukakis as the two native Southerners worked to isolate the governor by casting themselves as messengers of hope in contrast to his more managerial style. Mr. Gore's fortunes have improved since he won the endorsement of New York City Mayor Edward Koch last week, and though the young Tennessean has no chance of winning, his candidacy continues to pose a threat to Mr. Dukakis' support among Jewish and Catholic voters. It is a battle played out in a field like few others in America. Mayor Koch says politics here is only a matter of standing "toe to toe, head to head." Of course, Mr. Koch is also the man who once proposed using wolves to guard the city's subway yards from vandals. Metropolitan Transit Authority Chairman Robert Kiley, who has run systems here and in Massachusetts, says New York is different. "In Massachusetts, people shoot at you from behind trees," he says."In New York, first they attract a crowd and then they open up." Iowa farmers were just as demanding as candidates approached that state's contest 10 weeks ago, but those voters were stepping out of a portrait of American Gothic. This is Gotham. "One of the problems of New York is that it is so diverse that if you say yes to everyone, you can't fit into a consistent pattern," says University of Rochester Prof. Larry Bartels. From Jimmy Carter to Gary Hart, recent history is littered with Democrats who hurt themselves by promising too much. The challenge for the Dukakis campaign is to try to win, while finding the opportunities to say no. The governor struggles with his own contradictions but seems to succeed by playing off his rivals with different constituencies. In courting Jewish votes, his ethnic base gives him a major advantage over Mr. Gore, a Southern Protestant who once said his favorite Shakespeare play was "The Merchant of Venice." Intellectually, the senator's position on Israel is consistent with his demands for a more assertive U. S. foreign policy, but as the outsider, he is damned as a "panderer." Mr. Dukakis, invoking his wife Kitty, can speak of shared Passover seders and, however vague in his pleading for Israel, he emerges as the more independent, albeit sometimes stumbling, figure. The same restraint is seen in the governor's competition with the Rev. Jackson among homosexuals. The civil rights leader was the only candidate to participate in a major gay-rights demonstration in Washington last October, and gay and lesbian activists were critical in providing his campaign with early financial support and organization. He remains an emotional favorite among many gay voters here, and -- at some risk to his more conservative blue-collar support -- has held to his positions. Mr. Jackson spoke at a rally at the Lesbian and Gay Community Services Center here Friday. By comparison, Mr. Dukakis is more culturally conservative and politically circumspect. His campaign last week planned to address the AIDS issue by visiting children suffering from acquired immune deficiency syndrome; after pressure from his adviser on gay issues, the schedule was changed to include a visit to adult victims at a New York City resident facility. At a Rochester debate Saturday, Mr. Dukakis cited the meeting and the need for a president who would show leadership on the subject of AIDS. But when asked by the patients if he would invite them -- as AIDS victims -- to the White House, he had in fact equivocated. The governor is less hesitant with elderly voters, where he retains an important edge over Mr. Jackson. At a recent Long Island forum, Mr. Dukakis said he wanted to raise the current earnings restrictions on Social Security recipients over 65 years old. However, even a relatively small increase would be costly. If the scheduled ceiling of $8,760 were raised to $10,000 in 1989, it could cost as much as $1.2 billion over the next five years in additional benefits; the Dukakis campaign has yet to decide where this money would come from. Whatever the outcome, the New York contest has resolved where the party will be on such sensitive issues as South Africa. While all three Democrats used forums to demand tougher sanctions against the white minority government, Mr. Jackson is pushing his party toward an increased commitment to black neighboring states and the improvement -- and defense -- of the railroad corridor from inland areas to the Beira port in Mozambique. The issue of arms assistance to Mozambique provoked opposition from Sen. Gore and Mr. Dukakis in a televised debate yesterday, but the governor has endorsed a $700 million, five-year economic-aid program for black governments in southern Africa. In Angola, only Sen. Gore leaves open the question of continuing assistance to the South African-backed UNITA insurgent forces, which are represented by a Washington, D. C., lobbying firm among whose partners is a major Gore backer. Buffeted by the political currents, Mr. Dukakis' advisers are sensitive to any charge that he has wavered. The campaign won Texas despite his opposition to an oil import fee. Advisers were sharply divided over the decision later to emphasize the need for tougher trade legislation in Michigan, and the governor's loss there added to the bitterness. For the candidate there is at least the solace of Astoria, a Greek-American community where he can present himself without reservation. For a moment in that Queens neighborhood last week, he came alive as he has rarely before other audiences. The dark eyebrows played the chanting crowd, and he answered in Greek when voices called to him in English. "We're going to respect the law here in the United States," he said, "We're going to respect the law in Central America, and we're going to respect the law on the island of the republic of Cyprus." [This article is made available here by Dow Jones Co. for the personal and non-commercial use of callers to this bbs, in the hope that it will be of some help to those who are suffering from the disease and others who are seeking to help them.]