Subject: AIDS Cases in U. S. Expected to Exceed 8,000 During 1985
Date: Published: 2/21/85 113 lines
Source:  Wall Street Journal (c) copyright Dow Jones Inc. 

   AIDS Cases in U. S. 
   Expected to Exceed
   8,000 During 1985
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   Report Says 400,000 People
   May Have Been Infected
   By Virus Tied to Disease
    ---
   By Jerry E. Bishop
   Staff Reporter of The Wall Street Journal

   An estimated 400,000 Americans may have been infected by
the virus that can cause AIDS, or acquired immune deficiency
syndrome, according to an analysis published in a medical
journal.
   It isn't known how many of these infected persons will
ward off the virus and how many will develop AIDS. But more
than 8,000 new cases of AIDS are expected to develop this
year, in addition to the 8,000 cases reported since 1981,
when the epidemic broke out.  So far, there have been more
than 4,000 deaths from AIDS. 
   The cost of the epidemic this year alone is expected to be
more than $500 million in medical care and efforts to ensure
the safety of U. S. blood-bank supplies.
   This ominous outlook on the disease was outlined by three
physicians who specialize in AIDS -- Sheldon H. Landesman,
Stanley H. Weiss and Harold M. Ginzburg -- in this week's
issue of the New England Journal of Medicine.
   The gloomy picture is emerging, they explained, as a
result of a blood test developed last year that can determine
whether a person has been infected with the virus believed to
cause AIDS. The blood test can't directly detect the AIDS
virus itself, but it can tell whether a person's immune
system has begun producing blood antibodies to attack the
virus.
   The new test is expected to be licensed by the Food and
Drug Administration for commercial production in the next few
weeks.  The test will be used initially only to screen blood
donors to reduce the risk of AIDS being spread by blood
transfusions.
   The AIDS virus is known to be spread through sexual
contact, primarily between homosexual men, as well as by
"dirty" hypodermic needles used by drug addicts and by blood
transfusions.  Until development of the blood test,
researchers hadn't any way to determine how widespread
exposure to the AIDS virus has been among people who at the
moment seem healthy.
   New studies of blood samples taken from hemophiliacs over
the years indicate that by 1984 almost all had been exposed
to the AIDS virus, presumably through blood transfusions used
to control bleeding.
   The researchers also said that blood tests at clinics for
sexually transmitted diseases showed that exposure to the
AIDS virus is widespread among homosexual men in such
epidemic centers as San Francisco and is becoming more common
among homosexual men in such non-epidemic cities as Denver
and Pittsburgh.
   In addition, blood tests at detoxification clinics for
drug addicts indicated that anywhere from 50% to 87% of
addicts may have been exposed to the AIDS virus.
   "At present it is impossible to give an accurate figure
for the total number of persons in this country who are
positive (for the AIDS virus)," the researchers said.
However, on the basis of reports so far, "one can estimate
the total to be at least 400,000 persons," they said.
   The researchers estimated that one million drug users and
eight million homosexual men face exposure to the AIDS virus.
Although exposure among heterosexuals so far appears to be
low, the researchers said they aren't free from risk, noting
cases of AIDS being transmitted to heterosexuals and non-drug
users by prostitutes.
   The experts cited six studies indicating that anywhere
from 4% to 19% of exposed persons develop outright AIDS. But
an additional 25% developed symptoms suggestive of AIDS in
its early stages.
   The 8,000 new AIDS cases expected this year will cost
about $42,000 each in hospital care, the researchers said,
for a total hospital bill of $336 million.  It also will cost
more than $100 million to test the 12 million units of blood
to be collected in the U. S. this year and to replace units
found contaminated with the virus.
    ---
  Genetic Systems AIDS Test
   SEATTLE, Wash. -- Genetic Systems Corp. said it began
clinical trials of its blood test to screen for antibodies to
the AIDS virus, following approval by the U. S. Food and Drug
Administration.
   The company also announced an agreement with American
Hospital Supply Corp. for the distribution of the test to
blood banks and clinical laboratories.
   Genetic Systems' test, which ensures the purity of the
blood supply but doesn't indicate active disease, was
developed in a joint venture with a unit of the Pasteur
Institute of Paris.  The test is based on LAV, the AIDS virus
isolated by two doctors at the institute, Luc Montagnier and
Jean-Claude Chermann.  The venture has exclusive license to
patents filed world-wide in 1983, the company said.
   As reported, five U. S. concerns are developing an AIDS
antibody test under federal license.  FDA licensing of the
tests for blood-bank use has been delayed for several weeks
while clinical data is reviewed.
   Besides Genetic Systems, three other concerns are
developing an AIDS virus blood test without federal license.

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